SCOTUS interpreted HERA to authorize the government to act “in the best interests” of GSEs or itself. The Obama administration chose itself. Trump 47 can and should choose the GSEs in a recap/release.
Good analysis, but alot of wishful thinking also. The political consequences of writing off 300 billion would be "huge". Trump needs to thread the needle between what's right and what's in the taxpayers best interest ( or what's perceived to be in the taxpayer's best interest). A write-down of the SPS would create an immense political backlash affecting the midterms and undermine the BBB. At best, common holders will get a partial write-down, not the whole amount.
Treatment of the SPS is the key to the GSE common stock thesis. Great analysis. Thank you
Great analysis, ROLG!
TY RoLG
Good analysis, but alot of wishful thinking also. The political consequences of writing off 300 billion would be "huge". Trump needs to thread the needle between what's right and what's in the taxpayers best interest ( or what's perceived to be in the taxpayer's best interest). A write-down of the SPS would create an immense political backlash affecting the midterms and undermine the BBB. At best, common holders will get a partial write-down, not the whole amount.
I agree canceling the SPS is not an easy decision. But you overstate the $300B consequences by 80% given the warrants held by Treasury
This needs to be posted on X